Indicator

Recession Indicator

Sherman’s read on where the US economy is in the business cycle: Expansion, Slowing, Warning or Recession, built from public economic data and updated as it comes in.

Why we track it

Recessions are broad, lasting falls in jobs, income and output, and stocks have usually fallen hardest around them. The indicator puts recession headlines in context.

10-year Treasury yieldThe yearly return on a ten-year US government bond bought today and held to the end.
2-year Treasury yieldThe yearly return on a two-year US government bond.
30-year Treasury yieldThe yearly return on a thirty-year US government bond, the longest maturity the Treasury issues.
Buffett indicatorThe total market value of US nonfinancial company shares divided by the size of the economy (GDP).
CCC credit spreadThe extra yield investors demand to hold bonds rated CCC and below, the riskiest tier of the junk-bond market, over comparable Treasuries (ICE BofA US CCC & Lower option-adjusted spread).
Consumer price index (CPI)The Bureau of Labor Statistics' measure of the prices urban households pay for a basket of goods and services.

Why we track it

Related terms