Indicator
Yield curve (2s10s)
The ten-year Treasury yield minus the two-year. Positive means longer loans pay more, which is normal. Negative — inverted — means the short end pays more.
Why we track it
The gap has narrowed or turned negative before most US recessions, so its direction is watched closely even while the level is still positive.
Recent trend
0.41-0.06 (-12.8%) vs. a month earlier
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (2s10s) · data through August 31, 2026 · From August 2026: Stocks at a Record, the Fed Leans Toward a Hike