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Concept

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee

The committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private research group, that officially dates the start and end of US recessions.

Why we track it

Its dates arrive long after the fact, which is why tools that read the economy in real time are useful.

Asset allocationHow a portfolio is split among kinds of investments, such as stocks, bonds and cash.
BacktestingTesting an investing rule on historical data to see how it would have performed before putting money behind it.
Basis pointOne hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%), often written bp.
Bear marketA fall of roughly 20% or more from a recent peak, usually over several months.
Bull marketA long stretch of rising prices across a market, often dated from a 20% rise off a low.
Business cycle stagesThe economy’s long rise and fall: years of growth, a slowdown, sometimes a recession, then recovery.